Major League Baseball's regular season came to a close on Sunday with all 15 games taking place within a few minutes of each other, as envisioned by the league's schedule change.
The American League West division title was decided on the final day, with the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers entering the day tied at 80-81. However, the Astros' 9-0 win over the Oakland Athletics was not enough to secure a winning record, and they finished the season with an 81-81 record, the worst winning percentage for a division winner in baseball history. The previous low-water mark was set by the 2005 San Diego Padres, who won the National League West with an 82-80 record.
The Astros' poor performance was reflected in their run differential, which was outscored by 32 runs over the course of the season. According to FanGraphs, this translates to an expected win-loss record of 78-84, rather than the 81-81 actual record. The Rangers, who failed to secure a winning record, had an even more dismal run differential, finishing with a -46 mark and an expected record of 76-86.
Despite their poor regular season performance, the Astros will host the Chicago White Sox in the best-of-three wild card series, which begins on Tuesday. While the White Sox are considered a better team, the series is effectively a toss-up, with the Astros given a 55% chance of advancing to the ALDS by FanGraphs.
The possibility of an 81-81 team reaching the ALCS is not far-fetched, given the randomness inherent in the small sample size of a playoff series. If the Astros were to win the wild card series, they would face the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS, who finished with an 85-77 record and a +11 run differential.
NTC Report coverage is based on reporting from the original publisher.
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